Monthly Archives : February 2020

The Kiplinger Letter – February 2020

by on 19 February 2020in Uncategorized

1100 13th Street NW, Washington, DC 20005 • kiplinger.com • Vol. 97, No. 7

Washington, Feb. 14,
2020

Washington is ready to slap tariffs on countries that
weaken their currency to obtain an unfair cost advantage. A new rule from
the Commerce Dept. allows U.S. companies to file complaints about imported
goods from countries that manipulate the values of their currencies. If the
feds agree with the charge, they will impose countervailing duties on the
offending country’s imports.

And the policy faces potential legal challenges. Critics say it is ripe for abuse and may also run afoul of World Trade Org. rules. But it continues the trend of cracking down on unfair trade practices that has been a White House priority.

Mergers and acquisitions are going strong, following a bumper year for dealmaking in 2019. Companies are optimistic about the economy and willing to lay out large sums to increase their geographic and market reach. M&A has been particularly brisk in tech and health care. 2019 saw a 23% boost in deals worth $5 billion or more, mostly in those two sectors. Expect more in 2020.

RIMA Position on Critical Issues 2020

by on 17 February 2020in Uncategorized

1. Rhode Island General Laws Title 44 Taxation 44-3-3 Property exempt.   Manufacturers are exempt from property tax as noted in 44-3-3.  The Town of Cumberland’s tax assessor has decided to tax a manufacturer because he notes that the equipment is on a lease.  RIMA has taken action by submitting new verbiage in the State Statue that our CPA firm and RISCPA tax head feels will rectify this concern going forward.

2. TCI RIMA will be opposing this tax increase in our gas prices.  This is no more than an end around on the carbon tax.  The impact on the cost to our members and their employee’s will be costly.  In addition, we have been informed that this will produce an additional emissions reduction of 1-6 percentage points on top of a presumed reduction of 19%.  TCI would extract $56 billion from motor fuel users to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by a little more than 5% over 10 years.

3. RiteShare:  Offensive over the top burden to business.  The system is not computerized.  The data/information requirements are a time consuming matter and burden to companies who do not have HR departments.  RIMA has put together a point by point issues on this proposal.  The penalty fees for a 52 person company is the same for a 1000 person company.  RIMA will be discussing with the Administration but is currently opposed to this program

4. 7% IT Tax:  RIMA is not in favor of this as the business community continually is being hit with tax revenue ideas.  This tax or cost will be passed on to our businesses and private sector.

5. Tangible Tax/Commerce:  RIMA did a survey for Commerce and found that a reduction to 2.5% would vary from a savings of $200.00 small manufacturer to $30,000 for a larger manufacturer. The structure of this program needs to be further discussed and seems un-attainable in light of the very tight budget presented this year.

6. Real Jobs: RIMA will be supporting the funding of the program. It has been a major help to finding new employee’s but also a pipeline for hiring individuals to prepare for retiring CNC operators/setup personnel.  RIMA did a survey of it’s members and found that on average each company had 33% of their work force at age 55+.

7. Davies Vocational:  $500,000 in budget for engineering design for potential renovation.  A future bond for a revamping of the schools is possible in the future. The Governor has indicated that she would put in $4.5million next year for the project.

8. Minimum Wage Legislation:  RIMA expressed concerns on the increase but asked that the increase be reviewed on an annual basis and not tied to automatic increases each year.  RIMA also asked that the implementation date be noted as of 01/01/2021. The implementation date was not adjusted for the first time.  The past seven increases were all calculated to stated as of a 01/01 date.

9. Polaris:  RIMA is in support of increased funding for Polaris. RIMA and Polaris have partnered successfully over the last two years to bring various programs and support to the manufacturing community.

10. RIMA continues to level the playing field on various programs that only C-corps can participate in.  The majority of manufacturers in Rhode Island are either S-corps or LLC’s.  We therefore have respectfully requested that those statues that limit our S-corps and LLC’s be changed to include the pass through corporations as well.

11. RIMA, CCRI and Dept. of Corrections have embarked on a manufacturing training program.  The intent is to achieve success of training 10-15 inmates to learn the basics of CNC-machining.  We would advise these inmates on the advantages of learning this trade, the benefits available, the pay scale and the pride of making precision components.  The Governor has submitted $250,000 dollars in her budget to start the first of what we hope to be many classes.  The success of this program will also drive other potential training programs such as Quality Control, Shipping/Receiving training, Customer service and other ideas in the works.

12. RIMA continues to offer their “Travelling Manufacturing Road Show” to all 39 cities and towns.  We would co-ordinate a program to address the many programs offered by Commerce-RI, Dept. of Labor and Training, Governor’s Workforce Board, Dept. of Business Regulations and Polaris.  It is our intent to educate our manufacturers in all 39 cities and towns of what is available to help them run their operations.

Capitol Hill Washington DC – March 2020

by on 14 February 2020in Newsletter Articles

Senator Whitehouse – Energy, Environment, Oceans News

Funding And Other Opportunities

Please let us know if your RI-based entity submits an application for a federal grant.  If you send us a narrative/summary with grant details, we can submit letters of support. We will continue to send FYIs about grant opportunities as we see them.

Department of Energy

Advanced Vehicle Technologies

The Department of Energy announced up to $133 million in new and innovative advanced vehicle technologies research.  Funded through the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, this funding opportunity supports projects in advanced batteries and electrification in support of the recently announced DOE Energy Storage Grand Challenge. This FY 2020 funding opportunity also supports priorities in advanced engine and fuel technologies including technologies for off-road applications, lightweight materials, new mobility technologies (energy efficient mobility systems), and alternative fuels technology demonstrations.  Concept papers for this funding opportunity are due February 21, 2020, and full applications will be due April 14, 2020.  For more information and application requirements, please visit the EERE Exchange website or Grants.gov.

Bioenergy R&D

$96 million in funding is available for bioenergy research and development. Topic areas within this FOA will advance DOE’s Bioenergy Technology Office’s objectives of reducing the price of drop-in biofuels, lowering the cost of biopower, and enabling high-value products from biomass or waste resources. The application process will include two phases: a concept paper and a full application. Concept papers are due on March 5, 2020 and full applications are due on April 30, 2020.

For more information, read the full FOA. 

Solar Technologies Office

The  Department of Energy announced up to $125.5 million in new funding to advance solar technology research. Through the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Solar Energy Technologies Office, DOE continues to advance research and development of solar technologies that reduce the cost of solar, increase the competitiveness of American manufacturing and businesses, and improve the reliability of the grid.  Sign up HERE to learn more about this funding opportunity at an upcoming webinar.

Water Resource Recovery Prize

The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) announced a $1 million Water Resource Recovery Prize to accelerate resource recovery from municipal wastewater across the United States. Through this two-phased competition, DOE is accepting proposals for novel, systems-based solutions to stimulate resource recovery at small-to-medium-sized water resource recovery facilities. This effort can help lower the cost of wastewater treatment.

In the first phase of competition, teams will be required to submit an engineering schematic and business case that demonstrate the potential for cost-effectiveness and viability of resource recovery.  DOE anticipates selecting up to 10 winning teams for cash prizes of $50,000 each as part of phase one. Submissions are due no later than 5:00 p.m. (ET) on Tuesday, April 28, 2020.  Teams selected during phase one will move into phase two, in which one to two teams will be selected to receive $250,000 cash prizes. DOE expects to give teams one year from phase one selection to submit final phase two materials. Only small- and medium-sized facilities (those with flows of up to 50 million gallons per day) are eligible to participate. Specific rules governing phase two submissions will be released at the conclusion of phase one in spring 2020.  View the submission instructions and participant eligibility for both phases of the competition HERE.

Environmental Protection Agency

The Climate Resilience & Stormwater Management Workshop Series

Workshop 1 – Preparing for Success: Funding Climate Resilience Initiatives

February 20, 2020 at theStormwater Innovation Center, Roger Williams Park Casino, 1000 Elmwood Avenue, Providence, RI 02907

Register here. 

Pollution Prevention (P2) Grant Program

Pollution Prevention (P2) Grants provide technical assistance to businesses in order to help them develop and adopt source reduction practices (also known as “pollution prevention” or “P2”). P2 means reducing or eliminating pollutants from entering any waste stream or otherwise released into the environment prior to recycling, treatment, or disposal. In keeping with the Pollution Prevention Act of 1990, EPA is encouraging P2 because implementing these approaches can result in reductions in toxic pollutants, the use of water, energy and other raw materials, while also lowering business costs. P2 grants are awarded to States, colleges and universities (recognized as instrumentalities of the state), and federally-recognized tribes and intertribal consortia.  Applications are due March 31, 2020.

EPA anticipates awarding approximately $9.38 million in total federal pollution prevention grant funding over a two-year funding cycle ($4.69 million in FY 2020 funds and approximately $4.69 million in FY 2021 funds). Individual grant awards may potentially be in the range of $40,000-$500,000 for the two-year funding period (or between $20,000 – $250,000 incrementally funded per year).

EPA’s national P2 Program will host two informational webinars for potential applicants and interested stakeholders. The first webinar will be held on Wednesday, February 19, 2020 from 2:00 – 3:30 pm EST. To register, please go to: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8522288642270023693.  This webinar will review information about the P2 Grant program and the application process to help potential applicants submit a high-quality application to EPA for consideration. Time will be provided on the webinar for questions and answers. The second webinar will be held on Tuesday, February 25, 2020 from 2:00 – 3:30 pm EST to review and answer questions on the NEAs for this grant competition cycle. To register, please go to: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4696774328423521549.

TSCA

On January 2, 2020, EPA announced the availability of its revised document, “‘TSCA New Chemical Determinations: A Working Approach for Making Determinations under TSCA Section 5.’’ The initial version of this document was published in 2017, where EPA also sought public feedback.  In response, EPA intends to clarify and provide additional details on its approaches and practices related to the review of new chemicals under the Toxic Substance Control Act (TSCA) in its updates to the document. Comment deadline is February 18, 2020. 

Read the updated document and submit comments here.

FEMA

Building Codes

FEMA is accepting comments for the new draft policy regarding Section 1206, “Building Code and Floodplain Management Administration and Enforcement” of the Disaster Recovery Reform Act. Comments must be submitted using the accompanying comments matrix. Comments received during this period will be reviewed and considered for the final version of the guide.  The draft policy and accompanying comments matrix is located on the FEMA website. If you have any questions, contact FEMA-Recovery-PA-Policy@fema.dhs.gov.

National Dam Safety Program

The 2020 Dam Failure Life Loss Consequence Workshop will take place August 19-20 in Washington, DC. The workshop has been developed to provide dam owners, emergency managers, regulators and other relevant stakeholders with a forum to discuss the needs of the industry in better estimating potential life loss consequence from dam failure. Better understanding of the risks from this potential consequence will enable owners to operate more safely; regulators to have confidence in the evolving industry practice; and practitioners to have suitable tools to respond to the needs of the industry.

The workshop will highlight the importance of defining dam failure scenarios and assessing life loss consequences through the presentation of tools and case studies. The full range of social, institutional, and environmental consequences will be addressed during the workshop, including a focus on direct and indirect economic consequences and loss of life estimation. 

Spots are still available. To register for the workshop visit click here!

This course is intended for dam owners, professional staff of dam safety and dam security programs, emergency managers at the federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial levels, and dam safety, dam security, and incident management personnel from the private sector who need to define and estimate consequences of dam failure scenarios.

For additional information on FEMA’s National Dam Safety Program please visit: https://www.fema.gov/national-dam-safety-program

Youth Preparedness Council 

FEMA is seeking applicants for its Youth Preparedness Council. The council offers an opportunity for youth leaders to serve on a distinguished national council and participate in the Youth Preparedness Council Summit in Washington, D.C.

The Youth Preparedness Council offers an opportunity for young leaders to complete a youth preparedness project of their choosing while learning about youth disaster preparedness from FEMA leadership and other national organizations. During their two-year term, council members will complete a national-level group project and share their opinions, experiences, ideas, solutions, and questions with FEMA and other preparedness organizations.

Students in 8th through 11th grade are eligible to apply. Youth interested in applying to the council must submit a completed application form, two letters of recommendation, and their academic records. All applications and supporting materials must be received no later than 11:59 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, March 8, 2020.  To access the application materials, read about the current council members, and for more general information about the Youth Preparedness Council visit www.ready.gov/youth-preparedness-council.

Federal Transit Administration

Accelerating Innovative Mobility (AIM) Initiative

The USDOT announced its Accelerating Innovative Mobility (AIM) initiative, which supports and advances innovation in the transit industry.  The AIM initiative includes $11 million in challenge grants to help transit agencies experiment with new ways of doing business, such as exploring new service models that provide more efficient and frequent service. 

AIM challenge grants will be detailed in an upcoming FTA Notice of Funding Opportunity. The initiative will establish a national network of transit agencies that will test and share project results and use FTA’s technical assistance centers to promote promising innovations. Also, FTA’s Fiscal Year 2020 competitive grant programs, which will total $615 million, will highlight innovation as part of their selection criteria.

Low or No Emission (Low-No) Bus Program

The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Transit Administration (FTA) announced the availability of up to $130 million in competitive grant funds through FTA’s Low or No Emission (Low-No) Bus Program. The Low-No Program helps project sponsors purchase or lease low or no emission vehicles that use advanced technologies for transit revenue operations, including related equipment or facilities.  FTA will award the grants to eligible applicants, which include public transit agencies, state transportation departments, and tribes, on a competitive basis.  Projects will be evaluated by criteria defined in federal law and in the Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO), including the applicant’s demonstration of need, the project’s benefits, project implementation strategy, and capacity for implementing the project.  The NOFO also includes criteria regarding rural challenges and innovation, in accordance with the R.O.U.T.E.S. and Accelerating Innovative Mobility (AIM) initiatives.  Instructions for applying can be found on FTA’s website and in GRANTS.GOV (funding opportunity FTA-2020-005-LowNo). Complete proposals must be submitted electronically through the GRANTS.GOV “APPLY” function by March 17, 2020.

Passenger Ferry Grant Program

The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Transit Administration (FTA) today announced the Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO) to apply for approximately $30 million in Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 competitive grant funding for passenger ferry projects nationwide. The Passenger Ferry Grant Program is authorized by Congress for projects that develop and support ferry service on many of the nation’s waterways, including the purchase, repair, and modernization of ferry boats, terminals, and related facilities that communities depend on.  The NOFO also encourages applicants to demonstrate how their proposed projects are consistent with the Rural Opportunities to Use Transportation for Economic Success (R.O.U.T.E.S.) and Accelerating Innovative Mobility (AIM) initiatives.  Projects will be evaluated and selected based on criteria outlined in the NOFO, including the need for improvements, demonstration of benefits to transit service, and integration with local and regional long-term planning. Applications will be accepted until 11:59 p.m., Eastern time, March 30, 2020.  Instructions for applying can be found on FTA’s website and GRANTS.GOV (funding opportunity FTA-2020-008-FERRY). Links:
Passenger Ferry Grant Program FY 2020 Notice of Funding Opportunity
Passenger Ferry Grant Program Web site

TRACS

FTA will hold a public meeting of the Transit Advisory Committee for Safety (TRACS) from 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. on Feb. 25, 2020 and from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Feb. 26, 2020 at the National Highway Institute, 1310 North Courthouse Road, Arlington, Virginia. Anyone wishing to participate by phone or in person should notify FTA at TRACS@dot.gov. A conference call number will be available on the FTA TRACS website. Written materials may be submitted to TRACS@dot.gov at any time.

NOAA

All funding opportunities here.

NOAA Fisheries

At-Sea Monitoring

NOAA Fisheries announced that for fishing year 2020, the total target at-sea monitoring coverage level is 40 percent of all groundfish sector trips subject to the at-sea monitoring program. For more information, please read the agency’s letter to the New England Fishery Management Council and the Summary of Analysis Conducted to Determine At-Sea Monitoring Requirements for Multispecies Sectors FY 2020.  Per direction in 2020 appropriations, we have funds allocated for reimbursing industry for its at-sea monitoring costs. The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission will continue to administer the reimbursement program for 2020 as in prior years.

Northeast Skate Complex Fishery Management Plan

NOAA Fisheries Seeks Public Comment on Proposed Modifications to the Northeast Skate Complex Fishery Management Plan.  To get all the details on these proposed modifications, read the proposed rule as published in the Federal Register.

The comment deadline is March 6, 2020.  Please submit comments either through the online e-rulemaking portal or by mailing your comments to:

Michael Pentony, Regional Administrator

National Marine Fisheries Service

55 Great Republic Drive

Gloucester, MA, 01930.

Please mark the outside of the envelope, “Comments on the Proposed Rule for Skate Framework 8.”

Sea Grant

Aquaculture: Addressing Economic and Market Needs of the U.S. Aquaculture Industry

Subject to the availability of funding, Sea Grant anticipates approximately $5,000,000 will be available for research projects and programs that will significantly advance the understanding of the economics of aquaculture businesses in the U.S. and address gaps regarding important market information. The overall goal is to advance business management towards development of a sustainable marine and Great Lakes aquaculture industry in the U.S. Successful proposals will address geographic and/or topical needs and will fully integrate research, extension, and education. Proposals that will support broad, non-proprietary research to address critical gaps with respect to aquaculture economics and market needs; make that information available to U.S. aquaculture businesses and management agencies; and build the capacity of Sea Grant and its partners, including Sea Grant aquaculture extension personnel and industry stakeholders, are preferred. These investments are consistent with Sea Grant’s focus area of Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture (SFA) and the Sea Grant Network’s 10-year Aquaculture Vision, both which support NOAA and Department of Commerce aquaculture goals. 

All proposals to this competition must be submitted by a Sea Grant program. Other interested entities must submit proposals in partnership with and through a relevant Sea Grant Program.

Read formal announcement on Grants.gov NOAA-OAR-SG-2020-2006331

Webinar slides (PDF)
Question and answer log from webinar discussion (PDF)

Notices of intent to submit due February 26, 2020

Full proposals due April 22, 2020

American Lobster Research Program

This program will support research to address critical gaps in knowledge about how the American Lobster and its fishery is being impacted by environmental change. It is informed by listening sessions with regional fishing industry stakeholders, state and federal fisheries managers, and university, state and federal fisheries researchers.

Read formal Notice of Funding Opportunity (NOFO) on Grants.gov

Deadline to apply: March 19, 2020

United States Coast Guard

Port Access Route Study – Offshore Wind Areas – MA and RI

The Federal Register Notice requesting comments on the draft report of the Port Access Route Study: The Areas Offshore of Massachusetts and Rhode Island (MARI PARS) was published.  The comment period will close on March 16th, 2020.  The Federal Register Notice can be accessed at https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/01/29/2020-01522/port-access-route-study-the-areas-offshore-of-massachusetts-and-rhode-island

USDA

National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA)

Small Business Innovation Research Program – Phase II

All USDA Small Business Innovation Research Program Phase II projects must have previously completed a successful Phase I project before applying for a Phase II grant. Projects dealing with agriculturally related manufacturing along with alternative and renewable energy technologies are encouraged across all 2018 SBIR topic areas. SBIR’s flexible research areas ensure innovative projects are consistent with USDA’s vision of a healthy and productive nation in harmony with the land, air, and water. Read the full SBIR request for funding application for more information.

Special Research Grants Program Aquaculture Research

The Aquaculture Research program supports the development of an environmentally and economically sustainable aquaculture industry in the United States. This program generates new science-based information and innovation to address aquaculture industry constraints. Over the long term, results of these projects may help improve the profitability of the U.S. aquaculture industry, reduce the U.S. trade deficit, increase domestic food security, provide markets for U.S. produced grain products, increase domestic aquaculture business investment opportunities, and provide more jobs for rural and coastal America. For more information, read the full Aquaculture Research program request for applications funding opportunity.  Closing date is Wednesday, April 22, 2020. 

Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

ACEP

USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) is extending the deadline to March 20, 2020, to submit public comments on its interim rule for the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program (ACEP). NRCS is asking for public feedback on two additional questions and made several clarifying changes to the rule preamble.  NRCS invites comments on this interim rule through March 20 on the Federal Register. Electronic comments must be submitted through regulations.gov under Docket ID NRCS-2019-0006. All written comments received also will be publicly available on regulations.gov.  For more information on how to sign up for ACEP, visit your state website at nrcs.usda.gov, or contact your local NRCS field office. 

RCCP

NRCS seeks public comments on its interim rule for the Regional Conservation Partnership Program (RCPP), which helps partners develop and implement unique conservation solutions that engage farmers, ranchers and forest landowners. The rule – now available on the Federal Register – takes effect on publication and includes changes to the program prescribed by the 2018 Farm Bill.  The 2018 Farm Bill made RCPP a stand-alone program with its own dedicated funding.  NRCS invites comments on this interim rule through April 13 on the Federal Register.  Electronic comments must be submitted through regulations.gov under Docket ID NRCS-2019-0012. All written comments received will be publicly available on regulations.gov as well.

US Fish & Wildlife

North American Wetland Conservation Act Grant Deadline, 2/21/2020 and 10/15/2020.

Bloomberg News Washington – February 2020

by on 7 February 2020in Uncategorized

U.S. JOB OPENINGS declined
561,000 to 6.8 million in November. / BLOOMBERG NEWS FILE PHOTO/MIKE FUENTES

WASHINGTON – United States
job openings fell in November to the lowest level in almost two years,
indicating more employers see headcounts sufficient enough to meet demand.

The number of positions
waiting to be filled decreased by 561,000 to 6.8 million, the lowest since
February 2018, according to the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor
Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, released Friday. Openings have steadily declined
since a 2018 peak of 7.63 million.

The recent drop in open positions is consistent with moderation in both the job market and the economy. Nonetheless, openings continue to exceed the number of unemployed as the tight labor market makes it difficult to find experienced workers. Labor shortages are also evident in lower-wage industries, which has prompted employers to offer higher pay.

Total vacancies exceeded the number of unemployed by just under 1 million in November, the report showed.

A gauge of United States
manufacturing rebounded sharply in January, topping estimates and signaling
growth in the beleaguered sector for the first time since July.

The Institute for Supply
Management’s purchasing managers’ index, based on a survey of manufacturers,
increased to 50.9 in January from an almost four-year low of 47.8, according to
Monday’s data. While just above the 50 level that signals expansion, the
monthly advance was the largest since mid-2013. ISM last week revised data back
to 2012. Stocks, bond yields and the dollar extended gains after the report.

The gain – exceeding the median
projection for 48.5 – reflected sizable improvements in the orders and
production components, while the employment gauge contracted at a slower pace.
The new orders index jumped to an eight-month high of 52 and the production
gauge surged 9.5 points, also the largest gain in more than six years.

NAM – February 2020

by on 7 February 2020in Uncategorized

The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI expanded for the second straight month, albeit only marginally, at 50.1 in December. More importantly, it sustained progress in the sector following six consecutive months of contraction.

Half of the top 12 markets for U.S.-manufactured goods contracted in December, down from seven in November. However, nine of these markets had lower PMI readings in December than in November. As a result, while global manufacturing activity has stabilized somewhat in the past few months, the sector remains weaker than desired.

Manufacturing employment fell by 12,000 workers in December, dropping for the second time in the past three months. In 2019, manufacturers added roughly 3,800 workers per month on average, compared to the average of 22,000 manufacturing workers created each month in 2018.

While the manufacturing sector has steadied somewhat recently, it remains weaker than desired as firms continue to grapple with slowing global growth and trade uncertainties. Eleven of the 19 major manufacturing sectors experienced reduced hiring in December. Average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers in manufacturing rose 2.8% year-over-year.

How the tariffs are set to
change:

“In exchange for China’s purchasing commitments, the Trump administration will cancel new tariffs on roughly $156 billion in Chinese imports that were set to take effect Dec. 15.”

“It has also agreed to cut in half the existing 15% tariff rate on roughly $120 billion of Chinese goods that had been imposed on Sept. 1. But tariffs will remain on roughly $360 billion of annual Chinese imports to the U.S., a majority of the Chinese goods sold in America.”

NAM President and CEO Jay
Timmons appeared on CNBC early this morning to talk about the deal. He said:

“Manufacturers are extraordinarily pleased that we have been able to complete phase one [of the trade deal] . . . The good news for manufacturers is there’s a key priority that has been addressed and that is enforceable rules regarding intellectual property theft and holding China accountable.”

“We are very pleased about that; we are looking forward to phase two because there are a lot of other issues that still have to be addressed.”

The U.S. economy grew 2.1%
at the annual rate in the fourth quarter. Global headwinds and trade
uncertainties continued to have large impacts on the underlying data, with
businesses hesitant to invest in their firms and sizable declines in exports
and imports, especially the latter.

New durable goods orders rose 2.4% in December, bouncing back after falling 3.1% in November. With that said, the latest figures are boosted by very strong defense aircraft and parts orders. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders edged down by 0.1%.

New durable goods orders have fallen 3.7% over the past 12 months, with a decline of 1.0% with transportation equipment excluded. As such, durable goods manufacturers ended the year on another disappointing note. Core capital goods spending-a proxy for capital spending in the U.S. economy-decreased 0.9% in December, but on a year-over-year basis, this figure increased 0.9%.

Private manufacturing wages and salaries rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter, up from 0.6% in the third quarter. That translated into 3.2% growth over the past 12 months, the fastest year-over-year pace of growth since the first quarter of 2002, or in nearly 18 years.

Manufacturing production rose 0.2% in December, but, overall, the data continued to reflect weaknesses for the sector in 2019. Over the past 12 months, output has declined 1.3%, with year-over-year growth negative for six straight months to end the year. Looking at annual averages, manufacturing production declined 0.2% in 2019, pulling back from the 2.3% gain seen in 2018.

There have been some signs of stabilization in other data points, especially in global markets and considering recent trade developments. My forecast for manufacturing production growth in 2020 is 0.5%. Along those lines, surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks found expanding activity in January, beginning the year on a positive note.

Total industrial production declined 0.3% in December. Utilities output fell 5.6%, largely because there was less spent on heating costs due to warmer temperatures, pulling the headline measure lower. Overall, industrial production fell 1.0% over the past 12 months, declining on a year-over-year basis for the fourth straight month.

Job openings in the manufacturing sector fell to just 388,000 in November, the slowest pace since December 2017. Nonetheless, manufacturing job postings remained elevated over much of 2019, averaging more than 472,000 per month year to date, including the all-time high reached in June (515,000). The overall labor market remains solid, even with softer net hiring, with job openings continuing to outpace unemployment by nearly one million.