2021 Year Ending Comments
- The P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI remained at 54.2 in December for the third straight month. The sector ended 2021 with modest growth worldwide, albeit with a decelerated pace since midyear. Manufacturers continued to expect production to increase solidly over the next six months even though the measure pulled back a bit in the latest survey.
- Supply chain constraints showed some signs of slight progress, even with still-significant challenges. Input and output prices decelerated for the second consecutive month from the record growth rates seen in October, but with each measure remaining highly elevated.
- Looking at trends over the past six months, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI declined from 55.4 in July to 54.2 in December. Canada, China and Japan were the only markets among the top 9 that had better manufacturing PMI readings in December than in July. (See the candlestick chart below.) Of note, the IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI decelerated from a record 63.4 in July to 57.7 in December—a still healthy reading despite easing on supply chain, workforce and pricing concerns.
- Supply chain and omicron worries will dampen the economic outlook slightly in 2022, according to the World Bank. After growing by an estimated 5.5% in 2021, global real GDP should rise by 4.1% and 3.2% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Six months ago, the World Bank had forecasted 5.7% and 4.3% growth for 2021 and 2022, respectively.
- The U.S. trade deficit jumped to $80.17 billion in November, which was just shy of the all-time high of $81.44 billion recorded in September. The goods trade deficit soared to a record $98.99 billion in November, with goods imports also hitting new heights.
- At the same time, U.S.-manufactured goods exports totaled $1,033.11 billion through the first 11 months of 2021, soaring 18.94% from $868.54 billion year to date in 2020. This reflects a very solid rebound in 2021 after an extraordinarily challenging trade environment in 2000
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