The NAM’s take: NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray weighed in, saying:

  • “While inflation has moderated and will likely continue to ease over the coming months, prices continue to increase solidly, particularly for key items, remaining ‘stickier’ than the Federal Reserve would prefer. As such, it will hike short-term rates at its May 2–3 meeting this week by 25 basis points before hitting the pause button.”

“Moreover, I expect that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep interest rates elevated for the rest of this year, and I do not expect a rate cut in 2023, contrary to what financial markets predict, unless the U.S. slips into a more severe recession than currently anticipated. (I would expect only a mild recession, with the chance of a soft landing still possible.)”