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June/July Newsletter Takeaways
- The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose from 55.0 in March to 55.8 in April, the fastest pace in 11 years, buoyed by growth in new orders, output and hiring, each of which was the strongest in at least a decade.
- Overall, manufacturers remain very upbeat in their outlook for production over the next six months. However, survey respondents also cited significant supply chain disruptions, with input costs soaring at the fastest pace since March 2011. The country-by-country data also reflected these larger trends, with robust growth in orders and output, but also in raw material prices.
- Eight of the top nine markets for U.S.-manufactured goods had expanding manufacturing sectors in April. Although Mexico remained challenged, the decline in activity was the slowest since the COVID-19 pandemic began. The Netherlands set new records for production growth, and in the process, notched the highest PMI among the top nine exports markets in April.
- Although the data largely reflect a major rebound in activity since last spring, it is important to also issue a word of caution. The year-over-year data compare activity today versus one year ago, when COVID-19 forced growth to plummet. As a result, the year-over-year growth numbers will be larger, mostly on so-called “base effects.”
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