- After falling in January to the weakest reading since October 2020, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI ticked higher in February, and the index for future output rose to a 10-month high. But, it is important to note that these surveys took place before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which will likely influence sentiment in March and moving Reflecting the flight to safety often seen during global events, the U.S. dollar has risen 2.1% against a broad-based index of currencies for goods and services since the start of the Ukrainian invasion. As such, the dollar’s value rose to its highest level since September 2020, continuing an appreciation that began on June 7, 2021, with the U.S. dollar rising 6.0% since then.
- The U.S. trade deficit rose to $89.69 billion in January, another record high, with the goods trade deficit jumping to $108.86 billion, also an all-time high. Goods exports, on the other hand, decreased to $155.89 billion but remained close to October’s record pace ($159.02 billion).
- Manufacturers in the United States are working robustly with the Biden administration and Congress to open markets, enforce trade agreements and address challenges overseas and ensure trade certainty and competitiveness, taking actions that include the following:
- Passing a resolution that denounces Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, expresses support for the economic and financial sanctions implemented against Russia and calls for the removal of Russia from the World Trade Organization and termination of permanent normal trade relations status with the U.S.
- Laying out manufacturers’ priorities for the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework
- Submitting comments to the Biden administration on the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act
- Continuing to advocate in support of passage of the Miscellaneous Tariff Bill
- Worldwide Manufacturing Activity: The P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI declined from 54.3 in December to 53.2 in January, the weakest reading since October 2020. New orders (down from 53.4 to 52.2), output (down from 53.3 to 51.4) and employment (down from 51.7 to 51.0) each slowed to begin the new year, with exports (down from 51.2 to 49.7) falling for the first time since August 2020. Encouragingly, the index for future output (up from 63.7 to 65.4) rose to a seven-month high in January, with manufacturers continuing to expect production to increase solidly over the coming months.
Supply chain constraints showed some signs of slight progress, even with still-significant challenges. After falling to a new low in October, the index for delivery times (up from 37.8 to 37.9) inched up for the third straight month while continuing to reflect long wait times related to supply chain bottlenecks and raw material shortages. Similarly, the index for input prices (down from 69.7 to 68.4) decelerated for the third consecutive month from the record growth rate seen in October, even as it remained highly elevated. In contrast, output prices (up from 59.8 to 61.0) accelerated once again.