Supply Chain Disruptions and Delta Variant
- The U.S. economy grew 2.0% at the annual rate in the third quarter, the slowest pace of growth since the pandemic began, down from 6.7% in the second quarter. The deceleration in economic growth stemmed from supply chain disruptions and the spread of the delta variant, with consumer and business spending easing significantly in the quarter.
- Overall, real GDP should rebound in the fourth quarter, with 4.0% growth expected, and for 2021, the forecast is for 5.5% growth. For 2022, the current estimate is for 3.6% growth. Real GDP in the third quarter was 1.4% above the pace seen before the COVID-19 pandemic began.
- New orders for durable goods pulled back 0.4% in September, but excluding transportation equipment, new durable goods orders increased 0.4%. Nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—a proxy for capital spending—rose 0.8% to a record $77.7 billion in September.
- Even as manufacturers struggle with supply chain bottlenecks, worker shortages and soaring costs, new durable goods orders have risen 10.0% year to date.
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