Manufacturers are finally making a little headway in rebuilding depleted inventories, a process that will continue to drive economic growth well into 2022. Consumers are strained by high inflation, but they’re still spending and contributing to growth. The housing market has stopped weighing on overall GDP growth after two quarters in which it detracted from GDP. Nonresidential construction is no longer declining. Expect growth to downshift but stay solid in 2022, at a pace of 4% or so. Again, the need to rebuild inventories promises to be a long-lasting tailwind. Once that abates, growth figures to settle back into a range of about 2%-3%.
